External publications

Food security implications of armed conflict in the Middle East and Strait of Hormuz blockage

Algieri Bernardina / Lukas Kornher / Joachim von Braun
External Publications (2026)

ZEF Policy Brief No. 68, Bonn: Center for Development Research (ZEF) University of Bonn

Volltext/Full text

While 2025 closed with optimistic forecasts of a “soft landing” for global inflation and economic recovery, the escalation of the conflict in and around Iran starting on February 28, 2026, has severely undermined the prospect for normalization. Within days after the US and Israeli attack on Iran, shipments through the Hormuz strait have fallen close to zero because Iran has attacked and threatened to continue attacks on ships passing the maritime chokepoint.[1] The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered what analysts describe as one of the most significant energy crises since
the oil embargo of the 1970s. Following the blockage, oil prices soared from around 60 US dollars per barrel in January 2026 to close to or above 100 US dollars per barrel in March 2026. Similar price changes are recorded for natural gas. The threats from Yemen had already partly affected international shipping by hindering access to the Suez Canal. The world is facing more than just an energy crisis; the new geopolitical scenario poses a
direct threat to global food security, echoing - with the risk of surpassing—the fragilities of previous crises in 2008 and 2022. Unlike the 2022 crisis, triggered by the Russian war on Ukraine and the disruption of grain exports from the Black Sea, the current crisis is structural and driven by production costs, including the core of agricultural productivity: fertilizers. […]

About the IDOS author

Further IDOS experts