Protecting Democracy in times of Autocratization and Polarization

This research and policy advice project aims to identify international strategies and development policy options that protect and promote democracy, social cohesion and peace. To achieve this, it explores the patterns and typical dynamics of autocratization and democratization processes in countries of the Global South and how these are related to polarization and social cohesion dynamics. We prominently analyse the interplay of domestic factors with international ones. On the one hand, the project focuses on the possibilities and limits of international cooperation, especially within the realm of development policy to counteract, halt and possibly reverse trends towards autocratization and polarization. Secondly, the project addresses the question of how development policy strategies and measures can potentially promote and strengthen autocratization and polarization processes and discusses which and how elements of the strategies and measures need to be adapted in these contexts to minimize these risks. All mentioned topics are examined in two dimensions of reality (offline and online).

Project Lead:
Julia Leininger
Armin von Schiller

Project Team:
Anita Breuer
Charlotte Fiedler
Karina Mross
Daniel Nowack
Semuhi Sinanoglu
Christopher Wingens

Financing:
Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)

Time frame:
2024 - 2026 / ongoing

Project description

For several years now, global autocratization trends have posed an increasingly fundamental threat to the liberal world order, social peace and development cooperation. Over 70% of the world's population now live in autocratic regimes, and the trend is rising. Social cohesion is eroding, leading to an increase in violent conflicts of various kinds. At the same time, democracy as a mechanism for the peaceful and respectful resolution of social tensions is being questioned in many countries, if not explicitly attacked. Internally, autocrats use social polarization and mobilize along exclusionary identities and discriminatory narratives as a strategy to advance or consolidate autocratization in their countries. These developments are usually insidious and undermine democratic institutions and processes, such as government accountability. Although in many places protests and social movements are resisting these anti-democratic tendencies in many countries, they often fail to be effective due to the power of the state apparatus.

Global and transnational dynamics reinforce these domestic tendencies. Economically successful autocracies such as China or Russia advertise their political model and actively promote it abroad. They spread anti-pluralist norms, stabilize dictatorships and attack democratic institutions, also and increasingly through digital means.

The global trends towards autocratization and polarization are framework conditions that restrict the available options for development policy. They not only impede and prevent the achievement of development goals, but also jeopardize the global and domestic common good, social cohesion and peace.

The research project aims to identify international strategies and development policy options that protect and promote democracy, social cohesion and peace. To achieve this, it explores the patterns and typical dynamics of autocratization and democratization processes and how these relate to polarization and social cohesion dynamics.The interplay of domestic factors with international ones is prominently analysed. On the one hand, the project focuses on the possibilities and limits of international, especially development policy cooperation in contexts of autocratization and polarization. The influence of autocracy promotion also plays a role in the contexts examined.

Secondly, the project addresses the question of how development policy strategies and measures promote and strengthen autocratization and polarization processes and which and how elements of the strategies and measures need to be adapted in these contexts to minimize risk of unintended effects of interventions.

The research and policy advice project aims to answer the following overarching questions and examines these in two dimensions of reality (offline and online).

  • What patterns (institutional reforms/actor strategies/digitalization) do autocratization and polarization processes and successful re-democratization processes exhibit?
  • How do autocratization processes affect peace? Are certain contexts particularly prone to the outbreak of violence?
  • Which inter- and transnational strategies contribute to the protection of democracy and promote active depolarization and social cohesion? (intended effects)
  • How can development policy measures be actively prevented from promoting/driving autocratization and polarization? (unintended effects)

The research project comprises four work packages (WP): WP0 deals with overarching questions and brings together the findings from the topic-specific work packages. WP 1-3 focus on specific policy areas. WP 4 deals explicitly with questions on digitalization and links the other WPs as a cross-cutting topic.

  • Work package 1: Protecting democracy and promoting social cohesion
  • Work package 2: Strengthening state institutions (in particular public administration) as an instrument for promoting and protecting democracy
  • Work package 3: Social peace, protests and autocratization
  • Work package 4: Digitalization, disinformation and autocratization

Publications

Events

Social cohesion in context

Social protection and social cohesion

Social protection for social cohesion

Taxation, inequality and social cohesion

Building Sustainable Peace

Social Cohesion in Africa

Contributing to Social Cohesion Through Development Cooperation

Social cohesion amidst the global polycrisis

Fostering inter-group cohesion