Trump’s tariffs have gutted Agoa’s duty‑free promise: our model shows how
Vogel, Tim / Zoryana Olekseyuk (2026)
External Publications
AGOA technically lives on after a one-year extension, but its main advantage has largely disappeared since the US added tariffs on top of it. Our simulations show the new tariff regime drives large declines in US-bound exports, with the steepest damage in a few AGOA-dependent countries and sectors such as apparel. The shock is forcing African policymakers to think beyond fragile preferences and build resilience through diversification and stronger regional and alternative market links.