The Current Column

Are youth protests pathways to democracy? Lessons from Madagascar

Toto, Priscilla / Lena Gutheil
The Current Column (2026)

Bonn: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), The Current Column of 26 January 2026

Bonn, 26 January 2026. GenZ protests are not always disruptive. Yet, in Madagascar, in an empowering moment for the youth, they toppled the regime. Whether it sparks lasting democratic change is uncertain.

The past two years have seen a remarkable increase in youth-led protests around the world. While many of these so-called Gen Z protests did not lead to regime change, Madagascar’s protests show how youth agency, coupled with military defection, can topple a regime. Although a significant achievement for a youth-led movement, a regime change does not necessarily ensure lasting democratic reforms.

On September 25^th, 2025, thousands of people took to the streets in Madagascar. Anger over frequent power and water shortages sparked nationwide protests led by a Facebook group called Gen Z Madagascar. Madagascar is one of the poorest countries in the world, where only 39% of the population has access to electricity, and only 55% of the population uses at least basic drinking water services (The World Bank, 2026). Civil society groups, unions, and citizens joined the movement to voice their dissatisfaction with the governing regime, eventually demanding president Rajoelina’s resignation. Refusing to step down, he fired his entire cabinet to appease protesters. However, when the military, led by Colonel Michael Randrianirina, defied orders, Rajoelina fled the country, leaving a power vacuum that allowed a peaceful seizure of power by the military.

Recent Gen Z protests in countries as diverse as Kenya, Mexico, and Morocco share many characteristics, such as their impactful mobilisation via social networks. Yet, not all protests did result in tangible political change. What can we thus learn from the success of the Malagasy protests?

Effective protests need broad popular support

Even though the Malagasy protests were initiated by Gen Z activists, they were only able to build pressure due to the involvement of the broader public. Activists mobilised around shared grievances such as water and power shortages as well as corruption, economic stagnation, attacks on freedom of expression and association as well as lack of government accountability. This created legitimacy across different societal groups. Protesters were quickly joined by unions, civil society groups and ordinary citizens, including the union representing labour inspectors and the national company in charge of distributing water and electricity. This widespread backing was essential because it turned the protests from isolated youth demonstrations into a force that the existing regime could not ignore.

Skilful use of social networks

The organisational abilities of young activists were necessary to catalyse shared grievances into actual protest. By making use of digital storytelling, people became involved emotionally and a sense of shared momentum was created. Activists learnt from their peers in Nepal to use Discord as a communication platform and rely on bluetooth-based offline messengers to communicate in case the regime shuts down the internet. Not only the use of digital tools, but also the leaderless structure of the movement made it hard to suppress. Even though street protests were mostly taking place at the Independence Avenue in Antananarivo, there were multiple groups organising public gatherings simultaneously and independently across the city.

Regime change requires elite defection

Another key factor in the success of Madagascar's Gen Z movement was its convergence with the military. The turning point came when Colonel Randrianirina, a vocal critic of Rajoelina who had been jailed in 2023 for allegedly planning a coup, urged forces to refuse orders to fire on protesters. By then, protesters had already eroded the president’s power as he dissolved his entire cabinet. Powerful allies, notably the business mogul Mamy Ravatomanga, fled the country, providing an opportunity for a military defection. Without military and elite support, Rajoelina’s regime was bound to collapse.

Towards a democracy that delivers?

Madagascar is currently at a crossroads. It remains to be seen whether the transitional regime uses the opportunity to systemically reform the country’s institutional framework and governance. Yet, some initiatives inspire cautious optimism. For instance, the appointment of a civilian Prime Minister, who in turn put together a majority civilian cabinet, is a clear attempt at reassuring the citizenry. The launch of a campaign to conduct regional consultations across the nation signals more inclusive governance. Whether these activities are merely symbolic gestures or genuine attempts at inclusion and transparency remains to be seen. While the initial reactions of international actors such as the AU and UN revolved around condemning the unconstitutional nature of the regime change, it is high time for them to support the Malagasy authorities in organising an inclusive dialogue for a peaceful and democratic transition.

What is clear is that 2026 will see continued Gen Z protests across the globe. With autocratisation on the rise, protests are one of the few means left for citizens to use their voice – often at an incredibly high cost as the recent example of Iran shows. In these difficult times, the case of Madagascar provides a hopeful sign that change is possible.

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Priscilla Toto is a participant of the 61st Postgraduate Programme for Sustainability Cooperation (PGP) and a member of the research group assessing how the national development banks of Nigeria and Ghana evolve into independent institutions.

Dr Lena Gutheil is a senior researcher in the research department “Transformation of Political (Dis-)Order” at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) in Bonn.