U.S.-Israeli War against Iran
How Germany Can Promote a New Social Contract in Iran
Trautner, Bernhard / Markus LoeweThe Current Column (2026)
Bonn: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), The Current Column of 18 March 2026
Bonn, 18 March 2026. It is not easy for Germany and Europe to play a constructive role. Yet regardless of the course of the war, they should work to support a new societal order in Iran.
In the view of the legal profession, the attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel are a violation of international law, while the same is also true of the bombing of neutral third states by Iran. There is widespread fear in the country concerning the consequences of the attacks, but many Iranians also welcome the military strikes in the hope of regime change. Without a ground offensive or divisions within the Iranian regime, however, this is unlikely to happen. Instead, there is a risk of civil war, an even more radical political regime or the disintegration of the country, with each scenario having disastrous long-term impacts on Iran’s population, the entire region – from Afghanistan to Turkey – and Europe. Not least, new refugee movements would be likely. A longer-term war would claim more civilian victims, cause huge damage to buildings and infrastructure not only in Iran but also in neighbouring countries, and put severe strain on the global economy. And the United States might not even manage to achieve its other war aim, namely to destroy Iran’s nuclear arsenal.
What can Germany and Europe do?
It is not easy for Germany and Europe to play a constructive role in this situation. Their influence over events is limited but they have a vested interest in ensuring that Iran and the region are not destabilised further. Regardless of the course of the war, they should therefore work to support a new societal order in Iran that is acceptable to all population groups, including supporters of the regime. Initially, this new order would no doubt fail to meet all of the wishes of the Iranian population, but it should create a minimum level of predictability for all stakeholders about what they can expect from one another. It would therefore need to be based on a new social contract that governs the mutual give and take between the actors.
A new social contract in Iran
The new Iranian leadership would need to provide at least a minimum level of the three services that are usually expected of a state and that were also demanded by Iranians in the most recent waves of protests, in other words the “three Ps”: (i) protection (against war, state arbitrariness and paternalism, including dress regulations), (ii) provision (guaranteeing income, jobs and affordable prices) and (iii) participation (through elections, freedom of opinion and access to social media). The fact that, despite its huge oil and gas reserves, Iran has not been able to provide these services for some time now is due to self-enrichment by the elite, generous funding for Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Assad regime in Syria and the Houthi in Yemen, and the cost of maintaining Revolutionary Guards, who primarily protect the regime from its own population.
Every direct foreign intervention undertaken to date has tended to hinder rather than promote democratic change. Germany and Europe should therefore take indirect measures, such as creating political and economic incentives to support a new social contract between the government and the people. Germany in particular distinguished itself as an influential power in the E3 group with France and the United Kingdom, for instance in launching a payment mechanism to circumvent the unlawful extraterritorial impact of U.S. sanctions. The European countries are obviously part of the West too but they have recently consistently acted in such a manner as to give actors in Iran reason to trust them more than Israel and the United States. As potential future economic partners, they also have something to offer Iran. By resuming state-backed credit guarantees, they could encourage investors to help Iran restore its water supply and agriculture and adapt to climate change.
Role of the diaspora
Moreover, there is a large Iranian diaspora in Europe that might invest in their home country after reforms have been implemented. As in 1979 when the Shah was deposed, Iranians living abroad expect to play a role in shaping political change in their country. Whether or not they make a positive contribution depends on whether they acknowledge their diversity and draw on their experience of living in Western states governed by the rule of law. For example, the new social contract in Iran must also include those who were defeated in the conflict and, instead of seeking revenge, must establish legal proceedings in accordance with the principle of due process against those responsible for the decades of oppression.
Stabilisation of the region
At the same time, Germany should prepare to support and stabilise other countries in the Middle East, particularly assisting them in hosting refugees. Germany has acquired experience with crisis response and stabilisation since 2012 and, among other things, has learnt how important it is to involve governments and communities in planning for accommodating refugees. Europe and Iran have much to win, yet they also have much to lose if the current war escalates out of control, our neighbouring region continues to be destabilised and ultimately not only Iran disintegrates.
Prof. Bernhard Trautner is former IDOS senior researcher, prof. adjunct Tübingen University and Member of the International Board, Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies (BICC).
Prof. Markus Loewe is an economist, Regional Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa and interim head of the Research Department "Transformation of Economic and Social Systems" at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
