Conflict Risks and Civil Responses in a Changing World: Autocratization, Violent Conflict and Global Security

Event Type
Research-to-Policy-Dialogue

Location / Date
Berlin, 10.11.2026

Organizer

German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)

The global autocratization trend remains unabated, while violent conflicts are on the rise, both within and between states. At the same time the international security landscape is changing rapidly. How are these developments connected and what do they mean for preventing and managing violent conflict? On 10 November 2026, we will explore these questions with leading academics, policymakers and practitioners. We will discuss cutting-edge research – both from within IDOS and from wider academia – and reflect on its policy implications.

Specifically, the Research-to-Policy-Dialogue will bring together leading academics, policymakers and practitioners to explore three pressing questions:

  • Global security: What does the current autocratization trend mean for international peace and security?
  • Autocratization and conflict: How does democratic decline shape the risk of political violence and violent conflict?
  • Looking ahead: How can conflict prediction, forecasting and strategic foresight help policymakers anticipate risks and identify pathways for prevention?

The in-person exchange is hosted by the conflict-cluster within the IDOS project “Protecting Democracy in Times of Polarization and Autocratization”, which analyses the current wave of autocratization, its causes and consequences, and international responses.

The event will open with a high-level expert panel on “The current rise of authoritarianism and its implications for global security and civil conflict management”, followed by two content sessions on 1) autocratization and armed conflict as well as 2) prediction, forecasting and scenario building. The event will also provide opportunities for networking and informal exchange.

 

Participation is by invitation only. For further information, please contact politics@idos-research.de

 

Programme

The current rise of authoritarianism and its implications for global security and civil conflict management

Expert panel

  • Ivan Briscoe (Senior Director for Policy, International Crisis Group)
  • Prof. Tobias Bunde (Hertie School of Governance, Berlin) 
  • Livia Leu (Ambassador of Switzerland to Germany)
  • Volker Oel (Director General for Reconstruction and Stability, MENA, Sahel, Horn of Africa, Eastern Europe, BMZ)
  • Franziska Schirmer (Director for Humanitarian Assistance and Stabilisation, Foreign Federal Office)
     

Empirical insights on autocratization and armed conflict

Content session I

Looking ahead: Prediction, forecasting & scenario building

Content session II

 

Hinweis

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