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The big flag issues for Global development policy in 2026: Trump 2.0, China’s status, Russia the spoiler, multi-alignment and 80% autocracy

Sumner, Andy / Stephan Klingebiel
External Publications (2025)

published on globalpolicyjournal.com, 17.12.2025

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It is clear 2026 will not be a routine year for global development cooperation. The US is now a deliberate norm-breaker under Trump 2.0, China is edging into high-income status while insisting it is still “developing”, close to 80 per cent of the population in low- and middle-income countries live under some form of autocracy, and Russia is selling long-term nuclear dependence as a development offer. At the same time middle powers from Brazil to the Gulf states are quietly turning that turmoil into leverage. In a new IDOS Policy Brief we argue that these dynamics are not background noise but the core story that will shape cooperation in the next few years.

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