The Current Column

Securing global food supplies

How development policy can avert the fertiliser crisis

Tups, Gideon / Katharina Molitor
The Current Column (2026)

Bonn: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), The Current Column of 13 April 2026

Bonn, 13 April 2026. German development cooperation must act swiftly to address the fertiliser crisis. Multilateral coordination and the promotion of soil health are priorities.

The looming fertiliser crisis is a stress test for German development cooperation. Now German DC must also prove that the BMZ reform plan is more than just a piece of paper. The tools for this are ready. The crisis calls for short-term measures – but also offers an opportunity for a long-overdue paradigm shift: away from dependence on volatile fertiliser markets, and towards resilient, locally rooted strategies.

The looming fertiliser crisis and its consequences

The world is once again facing a fertiliser crisis. Since US and Israeli air strikes against Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, trade has ground to a halt. Around a third of the world’s shipped nitrogen fertiliser passed through the Strait up to now. Now, prices for nitrogen fertiliser have risen by up to 50 per cent. For millions of smallholder farmers in the Global South, this will jeopardise their food security. The World Food Programme warns that the war could push 45 million more people into acute food insecurity – and food price rises are also expected in Germany.

In previous fertiliser crises, rising food prices have subsequently caused inflation to rise sharply. This has not only had a negative impact on food security, but has also led to uprisings and a further strengthening of populist movements. Fertiliser crises are also increasingly being politicised in the context of geoeconomic competition. Most recently, Russia has deliberately exploited fertiliser shortages to deepen dependencies and gain political influence. Anyone who weakens partnerships during the fertiliser crisis loses credibility and leaves the field open to others.

The tools are ready

With 3.5 billion euros (2023) in investment in rural development and food security, Germany is the largest bilateral donor – a responsibility that matters now.

Since its G7 presidency in 2022 at the latest, Germany has established itself as a multilateral actor in food crises – from the Global Alliance for Food Security (GAFS) to its support for the Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Action Plan.

German development cooperation is also making important contributions to soil health in practice. Long-term initiatives, such as the GIZ project ‘Soil Protection and Rehabilitation for Food Security’ (ProSoil), have rehabilitated around one million hectares of agricultural land across several countries and achieved yield increases of 44 percent for smallholder farmers.

Four levers for the coming months

Building on the high level of trust at the multilateral level and its strong track record in implementation, Germany can now utilise four levers.

Strengthen G7 coordination: The G7 countries account for 73 percent of all donor investments in food systems. Germany should push for coordinated action and propose the reactivation of the G7 Expert Fertilizer Group. The expert group was already important following Russia’s 2022 attack in coordinating emergency aid and medium-term strategies for diversifying supply chains.

Review special funding; combine emergency aid with sustainable measures: During the crisis triggered by Russia in 2022, Germany already made €880 million available in special funds, thereby mobilising a further 4.5 billion US dollars via the G7. What is crucial now is the design of a comparable mechanism that ensures funds reach smallholder farmers directly and, ideally, are sustainably channelled into ongoing projects; rather than being squandered as windfall profits by the fertiliser industry.

Tapping into local fertilisation potential and increasing nutrient use efficiency: Dependence on imported fertiliser is a structural problem in many countries. Agroecological approaches such as composting, integrated soil fertility management and organic inputs are not only ecologically sound but also economically viable, as they increase the nutrient use efficiency of conventional fertilisers. This reduces the need for imported fertilisers. Germany should scale up these initiatives and involve further donors.

Driving forward the repurposing agenda: The reallocation of environmentally harmful agricultural subsidies can reduce dependencies in the long term. Germany knows the problem from its own experience: The nitrogen surpluses from German agriculture alone cause environmental damage amounting to 4.8 billion euros annually. Fossil fuel subsidies should be redirected towards sustainable soil practices and the development of decentralised fertiliser production.

The BMZ reform plan as an opportunity?

The BMZ reform plan provides the strategic framework for a response to the crisis. It consolidates the special initiative ‘Transformation of Agricultural and Food Systems’ and emphasises that food security must be focused on Africa – where the fertiliser crisis will hit hardest.

However, the plan has a weak spot: an overly narrow focus on the private sector. That is certainly justified. But if experience from the German soil health portfolio shows one thing, it is that effective solutions are often local and knowledge-intensive– but not necessarily profitable for (foreign) investors.

The response to the crisis should therefore continue to uphold development policy principles as a guideline and ensure that no one is left behind. The aim is a sustainable transformation of dependencies.

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• Katharina Molitor is a human geographer at IDOS and conducts research on food price changes and markets, food and nutrition security and smallholder farming.
• Dr Gideon Tups is an economic geographer at the Centre for Development Research (ZEF) at the University of Bonn. His research focuses on agri-food systems, global supply chains, fertilisers and the bioeconomy.