Megatrends: Structural Transformations in Africa

Project description

The “Megatrends Afrika” Project

Especially in today’s era of disruption – against the backdrop of a changing world order, the return of war to Europe and the fragmentation of the West as a community of values – Germany and Europe face major challenges. In this context, African countries are steadily gaining importance as partners for Germany and Europe, whether in reforming the multilateral order, reducing economic dependencies or attracting skilled workers. These dynamics create new challenges for German and European decision-makers and increase the need for scientifically grounded policy advice.

In the project “Megatrends Afrika: Cooperation with Africa in Times of Global Disruption”, we develop ideas for German and European cooperation with African partners to help shape ongoing transformation processes in a sustainable and fair manner. We examine what the new world order and key megatrends mean for politics, economies and peace in Africa; how African societies are shaping their policies in an increasingly fragmented international system; and in which areas Germany and Europe can further develop their cooperation with African partners in the pursuit of shared interests.

We focus on four research areas:

• Peace and Security
• The Future of Democracy
• Economic Prospects
• Africa's Role in the New World Order

The project’s researchers adhere to the generally recognised principles for ensuring good scientific practice. Policy Briefs and Working Papers that are produced are subject to an internal peer review process. Furthermore, Policy Briefs undergo fact-checking. The publications reflect the views of the respective authors.

Informing the Debate on Africa Policy

We produce policy-relevant research on major political, social and economic trends in Africa. The project brings together scholars from both continents and different disciplines. Our goal is to engage in exchange, adopt different perspectives and subject them to critical reflection and discussion. We conduct these debates at workshops with representatives from academia, politics and civil society, through our publications and via the blog series of on website (Spotlight). In doing so, we seek to contribute to a more nuanced public debate on Africa.

Funding

As an interdepartmentally financed research and advisory project, we receive funding from the German Federal Foreign Office (AA), the Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF), the Federal Ministry of Defence (BMVg), the Federal Ministry of Research, Technology and Space (BMFTR),  the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) and the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWE).

Research Area: Peace and Security

The number of conflicts in African states is increasing – as is the number of civilian casualties and displaced persons. In this research area, we examine the international context of conflicts in Africa as well as the interplay between the multipolarity of conflict at the international level, fragmentation at the regional level and increasing militarisation at the national level. How do African governments navigate security and foreign policy across these levels? What impact does this have on conflict dynamics, political stability and foreign policy orientation?

Research Area: The Future of Democracy

As in other parts of the world, current political and economic disruptions across the globe have direct consequences for international cooperation as it promotes democracy in Africa. In recent years, established democracies have lost their appeal as role models, whereas authoritarian models have gained influence. Many African countries are following the global trend towards autocratisation, while at the same time political protests and social movements that challenge the existing order are gaining in importance. How do demographic changes, digitalisation and urbanisation affect the political attitudes and behaviours of African citizens? What does the United States’ retreat as a supporter of democracy – and as a political model – mean for democracy promotion in Africa?

Research Area: Economic Prospects

In the coming years, the key question of bottlenecks for African development policy will continue to be a focus: How can rapidly growing investment needs – in climate, education and infrastructure – be financed and translated into productive growth, while traditional donor funds become scarcer and debt risks increase? We structure our analysis along three axes: first, the effectiveness of reform and investment initiatives such as the G20 “Compacts with Africa” in mobilising private capital; second, an appropriate division of labour between private finance and public development finance, including domestic resource mobilisation; and third, the role of structural constraints – such as infrastructure, energy, skills and governance – for investment decisions and sustainable partnerships.

Research Area: Africa's Role in the New World Order

Global power relations are shifting towards a multipolar and fragmented world order. This is also shaping how African actors see themselves, with an increasing orientation towards the concept of multi-alignment. Countries such as China, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey are stepping up their political, economic and military engagement on the continent, creating more options for Africa’s strategic partnerships. In this research area, we examine geopolitical power shifts and their impacts on the decision-making of African actors in development, climate, security and economic policy.