The Current Column

Climate Adaptation at Risk

How the Impasse on the Global Goal on Adaption Affects Developing Nations

Hasanuzzaman, A B M / Aparajita Banerjee
The Current Column (2026)

Bonn: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), The Current Column of 6 July 2026

Bonn, 06 July 2026. Across climate-vulnerable countries, communities are adapting to climate impacts, but the resource needed to sustain these efforts remains inadequate.

The June Climate Meetings (SB64), the annual mid-year climate negotiations, delivered limited progress on several key agenda items, including the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). The GGA is a collective commitment by all countries under the Paris Agreement to guide adaptation efforts, strengthen accountability, and mobilise finance for vulnerable countries. While countries were expected to finalise their operational framework, longstanding political issues remained unresolved. Developing countries criticised developed countries for failing to commit to a text that would at least triple adaptation finance, as envisaged under COP 30’s Global Mutirão outcome. Without agreement on finance, negotiations made little progress.

The deadlock extends far beyond the negotiation rooms in Bonn. For climate-vulnerable countries, inadequate adaptation finance widens the gap between climate commitments and implementation. National adaptation budgets are often insufficient and must compete with other pressing development priorities. As a result, millions remain exposed to climate risks, while hard-won development gains are placed at risk. Although many developing countries already devote significant public resources to addressing climate impacts, these investments remain far below what is needed and further constrain fiscal space for other development priorities.

Recent national budget allocations in Bangladesh, one of the world’s most climate-change-vulnerable countries, help illustrate the implications of stalled progress on GGA within the national context. Bangladesh’s National Adaptation Plan of 2023 estimates that approximately USD 8.5 billion will be needed annually between 2023 and 2050 to address adaptation challenges. By contrast, Bangladesh’s national budget for 2026-2027 allocated around USD 3.19 billion for climate change adaptation. Distributed across 25 ministries, this funding supports disaster risk reduction, climate-resilient agriculture, food security, and social protection programmes. While substantial, it covers less than half of the country's estimated annual adaptation needs, underscoring that domestic resources alone are insufficient to meet adaptation goals.

The adaptation allocation, equivalent to around 4.15% of the national budget, represents an increase from previous years but also highlights fiscal trade-offs. Public investment in climate mitigation remains limited, with the FY2026–27 budget allocating only USD 814 million to renewable energy, energy efficiency, low-carbon transport, and afforestation. This falls well short of the estimated USD 1.78 billion required annually to meet Bangladesh’s renewable energy targets by 2030, including USD 553 million in public investment, while the current allocation of USD 31.1 million covers only 2.2% of this need. As a result, inadequate public financing continues to slow renewable energy deployment, while dependence on imported fossil fuels is reinforced by tax exemptions for importing them.

For countries like Bangladesh, grant-based adaptation finance is therefore essential. Without it, climate ambitions risk remaining largely rhetorical. Persistent underfunding can weaken adaptation institutions and undermine implementation efforts built over years. Yet national governments alone cannot be blamed. The war in Ukraine and the US-Iran war have heightened concerns over energy security, inflation, and economic stability, diverting fiscal resources and political attention away from climate action.

Similarly, many climate-vulnerable countries now face a dual challenge: managing escalating climate risks while navigating an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape. Energy insecurity, supply-chain disruptions, and economic volatility have been added to an already long list of climate-related threats, including sea-level rise, floods, droughts, salinity intrusion, food insecurity, displacement, and ecosystem degradation.

The lack of progress on the GGA at SB64 is therefore deeply concerning. Climate-vulnerable countries need continuous and adequate finance to implement adaptation measures and meet their climate commitments. Yet the political and fiscal space for adaptation is shrinking, not because climate risks have diminished, but because competing crises increasingly dominate national and international agendas. COP31 must restore momentum by agreeing on an operational GGA that is measurable, finance-responsive, and implementation-oriented. This requires agreed adaptation indicators, stronger accountability, and predictable grant-based finance that enables vulnerable countries to implement their adaptation priorities.

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A B M Hasanuzzaman is a 2025 Alexander von Humboldt International Climate Protection Fellow hosted by IDOS.

Dr Aparajita Banerjee is a sociologist and Senior Researcher in the research department “Environmental Governance” at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).