External publications

Trump’s tariffs have gutted Agoa’s duty‑free promise: our model shows how

Vogel, Tim / Zoryana Olekseyuk
External Publications (2026)

published on theconversation.com, 01.03.2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.64628/AAJ.pf7xt64de

AGOA technically lives on after a one-year extension, but its main advantage has largely disappeared since the US added tariffs on top of it. Our simulations show the new tariff regime drives large declines in US-bound exports, with the steepest damage in a few AGOA-dependent countries and sectors such as apparel. The shock is forcing African policymakers to think beyond fragile preferences and build resilience through diversification and stronger regional and alternative market links.

open access

AGOA technically lives on after a one-year extension, but its main advantage has largely disappeared since the US added tariffs on top of it. Our simulations show the new tariff regime drives large declines in US-bound exports, with the steepest damage in a few AGOA-dependent countries and sectors such as apparel. The shock is forcing African policymakers to think beyond fragile preferences and build resilience through diversification and stronger regional and alternative market links.

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