External publications

2 superpowers, 1 playbook: Why Chinese and US bureaucrats think and act alike

Esser, Daniel / Heiner Janus / Theisen, Mark / Tim Hailer-Röthel
Externe Publikationen (2025)

published on theconversation.com, 16.12.2025

DOI: https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.64628/AAI.sjunpp3ed
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Despite strategic rivalry, bureaucratic behavior in China and the United States follows strikingly similar logics. Drawing on comparative research across foreign aid, environmental governance, and pandemic response, we show that Chinese and U.S. bureaucrats are often driven by strikingly similar incentives. Career pressures, blame avoidance, political signaling, and risk aversion shape day-to-day decision-making on both sides — frequently producing comparable outcomes, despite very different political systems. Understanding these shared bureaucratic dynamics helps explain why the two superpowers can appear deeply polarized politically, yet are surprisingly predictable in practice. Beneath geopolitical rivalry, common administrative logics continue to anchor state action.

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