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Spheres of influence are officially back - and China stands to gain

Haug, Sebastian
External Publications (2026)

in: The Diplomat, 03.02.2026

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Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the United States abducting Venezuela’s president,and U.S. President Donald Trump’s public musings about annexing Greenland all point in the same direction. After decades marked by Western dominance, economic globalization and the expansion of multilateral institutions, the ostentatious exercise and threat of raw military power are back at the center of world politics. Overall, we are seeing the return of overt geopolitics: a style of major power politics that does not bother to hide behind international law or multilateral norms. That’s good news for China – and bad news for Taiwan.

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