The Current Column

Disruption and Reform

Partnerships, not spheres of influence

Berger, Axel / Anna-Katharina Hornidge
The Current Column (2026)

Bonn: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), The Current Column of 12 January 2026

Bonn, 12 January 2026. Unvarnished power politics are causing the multilateral order to crumble. Europe must expand its strategic autonomy and strengthen cooperation with middle powers.

The New Year has opened with a jolt: a military intervention in Venezuela’s state sovereignty in breach of international law and the abduction of the autocratically ruling President Maduro. While Venezuela’s future remains uncertain, the United States is staging itself geopolitically: The multilateral order, built on international law and shared guiding principles, continues to erode. A logic based on power spheres is enforced ever more blatantly. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s power projections in the South China Sea, and now the actions of the United States in Venezuela show: power politics are displacing international law. Meanwhile, middle powers such as Germany and the European Union are struggling for a common stance and language.

Already last year, multilateral systems faced pressure rarely seen before. The United Nations (UN) are undergoing a profound reform process. Massive budget cuts demand far-reaching institutional change. The OECD development system is also in deep crisis – due to financial cutbacks in many donor countries and asymmetric donor-recipient attitudes no longer reflecting the mutual dependencies of the 21st century. While the consequences of climate change are becoming ever more apparent, the most recent climate conference in Brazil fell short of expectations due to a lack of willingness to act on the part of the major emitters. The global trade system likewise is under considerable strain: tariff wars triggered by the United States coincide with persistent reform backlog in the World Trade Organization. The list could go on.

Strategic autonomy is based on reliable partnerships

At the same time, there are clearly actors in the international system who – alongside Europe and Germany – continue to bet on international cooperation and functioning multilateral systems. They are important potential partners. During its presidency of last year’s climate conference, Brazil advocated for an ambitious climate policy. South Africa, during its G20 presidency, set focus on debt solutions, food security, and climate finance. Indonesia and India during their respective G20 presidencies in recent years also championed a development-oriented and cooperative international order.

And Europe? The restrained reactions to the US attack on Venezuela make clear just how strongly Europe remains dependent on the United States in terms of security and economically. This includes its defence capability vis-à-vis Russia in Ukraine as well as possible future confrontations (for example, Greenland).

The year 2026 will be shaped by disruption and reform. For Europe, the European Union (EU), and Germany, this means expanding their own strategic autonomy and becoming more independent – both from the United States and from China.

This requires a targeted expansion of cooperation with the middle powers of Latin America, Africa, and Asia. The conclusion of the trade agreement with MERCOSUR was long overdue. The EU should use the World Trade Organization’s ministerial conference in Cameroon in March 2026 to initiate comprehensive reforms of the global trade system and thereby take up concerns raised by countries such as South Africa and India.

Acting with a united voice

A decisive lever for Europe’s capacity to act is the new Multiannual Financial Framework and the Global Europe instrument proposed within it. The ongoing negotiations should be used to strengthen Europe’s competitiveness through partnerships for sustainable development, to coherently support Europe’s external capacity to act, and to secure long-term investments in global public goods.

At the same time, Europe must find ways to speak with a united voice in international fora. The EU member states – also in cooperation with the United Kingdom (UK) – should make stronger use of their institutional roles in multilateral systems, for example by increasing core funding contributions to the UN system, acting as shareholders in multilateral development banks, and through joint European seats or Team Europe voting groups. This is the only way Europe can actively co-shape reforms and avoid becoming a pawn in the power games of Russia, China, and the United States.

Germany must provide impetus

The G7, under the French presidency, will play an important role in 2026, particularly in view of the blocked situation in the G20 under US presidency. Here, the four European G7 members – Germany, France, Italy, and the UK – together with the EU, the African Union, and the middle powers of the Global South, should set impulses for reform – even against resistance from the United States – to reduce global economic imbalances, for example in financial and digitalisation systems.

As the largest economy at the centre of Europe, Germany must provide impulses of its own to the many international reform processes – from the protection of global commons, through economic cooperation in mutual interests, to strengthening the EU as a global actor. With the Munich Security Conference, the Hamburg Sustainability Conference, and the announced North–South Commission, Germany has platforms to reach out to the middle powers of the world.

Further, Germany possesses credibility rooted in its tradition of cooperative policymaking, a key foundation for formative cooperation policy in an increasingly multipolar world. The ongoing reforms of German development and foreign policy should build on this resource and consistently advance it as a strategic instrument of cooperation.